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RESALE prices of private condominiums dropped for the first time this year, as prices slipped in the city fringe area.

Flash estimates from SRX and 99.co on Monday (Nov 25) showed that overall condo resale prices in October dipped 0.5 per cent month on month.

In the Rest of Central Region (RCR), prices were down 0.8 per cent. However, in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), prices were up 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.

Island-wide, condo resale prices are still higher year on year – by 3.7 per cent in the CCR, 3.3 per cent in the RCR, and 3.9 per cent in the OCR.

The last time prices registered a contraction was December 2023, said Luqman Hakim, chief data and analytics officer at 99.co.

Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc (SRI), noted that the moderation in private resale prices is likely due to the influx of new supply, as 3,225 non-landed units reached their temporary occupation permit (TOP) in the third quarter this year.

“This represents the highest quarterly number of completed units for the year, following the peak of 4,036 non-landed units in Q4 2023,” he said.

He added: “The increase in newly completed units for the year have likely contributed to the easing of private resale prices.”

Volume up amid rate cuts

Transaction volumes, meanwhile, rose by 8.1 per cent in October. About 1,124 units were resold, up from the 1,040 units transacted in September.

Volumes were 29.1 per cent higher year on year, and 11.3 per cent higher than the five-year average volume for the month of October.

Other analysts highlighted that recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve could have boosted resale transactions.

Ismail Gafoor, chief executive of PropNex, expects more buyers entering the resale market as the Fed signals further rate cuts.

“Since the Fed rate cut announcement, we note that the three-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average (Sora), which banks used to price home loan packages, have moderated,” he said.

The three-month Sora stood at 3.54 per cent per annum in mid-September, and fell to 3.25 per cent per annum as at Nov 25.

By region, 50 per cent of the transactions came from the OCR, 31.1 per cent came from the RCR, and 18.9 per cent were from the CCR.

Resale activity in the OCR is largely driven by homeowners upgrading from Housing Development Board flats, said Wong Shanting, head of research and market intelligence at ERA Singapore.

According to URA Realis data, at least 331 units were purchased by HDB upgraders in October, representing a 5.8 per cent month-on-month increase from the 313 units recorded in September.

SRI’s Sandrasegeran said the uptick points to a “sustained demand” from HDB upgraders, who are becoming more confident in long-term property investments.

The percentage of sub-sale transactions to the total secondary sale transactions was 8 per cent in October, unchanged from the previous month.

In October, the highest transacted price for a resale unit was S$14.1 million for a unit at Cuscaden Reserve.

The overall median capital gain was S$368,000 in October – an increase of S$9,000 from the previous month. District 20 (Ang Mo Kio/Bishan/Thomson) posted the highest median capital gain at S$650,000, while District 2 (Chinatown/Tanjong Pagar) posted the lowest at S$143,000.

The overall median unlevered return for resale condos was 29.6 per cent in October. District 20 (Ang Mo Kio/Bishan/Thomson) posted the highest median unlevered return at 45 per cent, while District 2 (Chinatown/Tanjong Pagar) posted the lowest at 14.1 per cent.

Resale activity to soften

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee expects resale volume to drop in the final two months of the year amid new launches.

She noted that projects launched in November have attracted “significant interest” from prospective buyers – shifting demand away from the resale market.

Year-end festivities may also dampen resale activity as people travel abroad, added Sun. But she expects sales to pick up again after the holiday season.

She also believes resale prices will rise further as demand outstrips supply next year. This comes as the number of private home completions or homes obtaining TOP will fall further by 41.3 per cent on the year to 5,348 units in 2025, she said.

PropNex’s Gafoor also expects the price gap between non-landed new and resale properties to rise, following new launches.