Blog

[SINGAPORE] The cost of living and economy will no doubt top voters’ minds as they head into the 2025 General Election (GE) – much like most other elections.

But what’s different this time is the effects of high costs may be more keenly felt than before – as we wearily exit an episode of high inflation only to find ourselves possibly on the brink of entering Season Two, following US President Donald Trump’s onslaught of tariffs.

In a ministerial statement on Tuesday (Apr 8), Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the government’s deeper worry is not the direct impact that businesses face, but the wider implications for the global trading system and the world economy.

Singapore being levied the baseline tariff rate brings “no comfort at all”, he said, responding to questions from the Workers’ Party and Progress Singapore Party (PSP).

In short, a world with slower growth and lower trade does not augur well for a small, open economy like Singapore that considers trade its lifeblood.

As Singaporeans brace for a new – possibly less favourable – economic climate, all eyes will be on the government’s policy response to steer the nation while the world order is being reconfigured.

To get a sense of whether the government’s messages on the tariffs resonate with the electorate so far, perhaps a clue lies in how certain quarters have reacted to comments by PSP’s senior leadership on Sunday.

PSP Non-Constituency Member of Parliament Leong Mun Wai initially said the government’s response had been “overblown”, while party chairman Tan Cheng Bock declared that the government’s actions were “partly to instil fear in the voter”.

Those comments did not appear to go down well, with some even calling their words “irresponsible” and “out of touch”. On Wednesday, Leong clarified in a Facebook post that the party has “no intention of downplaying the new tariffs”.

In the days ahead, voters are likely to judge the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) on whether it can inspire confidence even as dark clouds loom.

The new task force chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong will play an important role here, as their actions and support to help companies navigate the new economic environment will be critical.

The question is whether the economic uncertainty will prompt a flight-to-safety response among voters.

This phenomenon was on full display in 2001, when the GE was called after the Sep 11 attack led to an economic shock and the PAP vote share rose to 75.29 per cent.

Two decades later, GE2020, which took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, played out slightly differently with the ruling party’s vote share down to 61.23 per cent – but not because voters evolved beyond a flight-to-safety mindset. Instead, a sizeable portion of the electorate did not agree with the GE being held at the peak of the pandemic, when safe-distancing rules were still in place.

PSP’s Dr Tan arguably had a better read of the mood when he accused the PAP of being “wrong and irresponsible” to call GE2020 then. But his allegations of the PAP’s attempt at fearmongering this time do not appear to stick – and indeed, border on being cavalier about the tariffs’ impact.

After all, in PM Wong’s ministerial statement, he told Singaporeans precisely the opposite. “Do not fear. Now, more than ever, we will stay resolute and united. Our Little Red Dot will continue to shine. In a dark and troubled world, Singapore will hold our ground as a beacon of stability, purpose and hope.”