[SINGAPORE] – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its gross domestic product growth forecast for Singapore this year, citing the region’s exposure to the US tariff hit and uncertainty from the fallout.
Its real GDP growth forecast for Singapore is now 2 per cent for 2025, from 4.4 per cent achieved in 2024. Its previous forecast for 2025, released in October 2024, was 2.5 per cent.
“Notwithstanding robust growth and inflation largely returning to targets in 2024, the outlook for the region has been downgraded in the near-term, in tandem with that for the global economy,” it said.
For Asean, IMF cut its growth forecast for the region for 2025 to 4.1 per cent, 0.6 percentage point lower than its previous forecast for the year. The 2024 growth figure was 4.8 per cent.
The agency said in a statement: “This is mainly due to the recent tariff announcements by the United States, countermeasures by trading partners, and the unpredictability accompanying these changes.
“The Asia-Pacific is both strongly exposed to the shock and faces a larger shock than other regions.”
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IMF projects that growth in the Asia-Pacific region will slow to 3.9 per cent in 2025, down from 4.6 per cent in 2024. It originally forecast the region’s growth to be 4.4 per cent.
The global agency said: “Lower external demand, a soft tech cycle and subdued private consumption will weigh on activity. Risks are tilted to the downside in the face of the region’s greater vulnerability to the uncertain trade environment and weaker-than-expected global demand, as well as asset-price volatility increasing the potential for disrupting capital flows and investment.”
Earlier this week, IMF also released its global growth outlook, slashing its forecast from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 2.8 per cent in 2025.
It cited US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs on practically all its trading partners, ranging from a baseline 10 per cent baseline tariff, to higher “reciprocal tariffs” on some countries. He has since called for a 90-day pause on the tariffs.
Singapore has also lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 0 and 2 per cent, from between 1 and 3 per cent previously.
