[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s key exports jumped 12.4 per cent on the year in April, which economists attributed to front-loading, as exporters take advantage of the pause on reciprocal tariffs and the reprieve ahead of threatened further duties.
Both electronics and non-electronics non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew last month, data from Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) showed on Friday (May 16).
But most economists kept their full-year 2025 NODX forecasts unchanged, save for UOB, which raised it to the range of 2 to 4 per cent. This incorporates the latest developments, with less certainty given the fluid situation, said associate economist Jester Koh.
It marked the quickest pace of growth since July 2024, and the first time that key exports charted double-digit growth since last August.
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On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX rose 10.4 per cent, reversing from the preceding month’s revised 7.5 per cent contraction.
Strong… for now
UOB’s Koh said the April data “emphatically reflects” continued front-loading ahead of Jul 9 – when the 90-day pause on US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs expires – and fears that threatened tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may eventually be imposed.
Year on year, electronics exports rose 23.5 per cent in April, widening from the 12.2 per cent climb in the month before. PCs (124.3 per cent), integrated circuits (23.3 per cent) and disk media products (33 per cent) led the increase.
Noting the strength in integrated circuits, DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng highlighted that Singapore is deeply integrated into the global semiconductor supply chain.
OCBC chief economist Selena Ling flagged that the “ongoing front-loading push” comes on the back of the US’ reciprocal tariffs exempting electronics products, and Singapore is subjected only to the baseline tariff.
Non-electronics shipments similarly gained 9.3 cent on the year – more than the 3.7 per cent growth recorded in March. Non-monetary gold (80.4 per cent), structures of ships and boats (for which the year-on-year growth rate of more than 1,000 per cent was not cited due to low base effect) and specialised machinery (7.2 per cent) contributed the most to the increase.
Of Singapore’s top 10 markets, NODX to all but two destinations expanded.
Key exports to Indonesia (111.2 per cent), Taiwan (47.4 per cent) and South Korea (38.1 per cent) grew the most.
The electronics cycle in Taiwan and South Korea, previously thought to have peaked in late 2024, have shown “a renewed bout of strength” due to front-loading, said Koh.
NODX to Malaysia shrank 1 per cent in April, reversing from the double-digit year-on-year growth in March. Key shipments to China fell by 17 per cent – but this was less than March’s 29.5 per cent year-on-year fall.
Still, Ling noted that NODX to the US slowed sharply to 1.2 per cent on year in April, from 6.2 per cent in March. Though tariff negotiations are still ongoing during the 90-day reciprocal tariff truce, this softening bears monitoring, she said. The US announced a UK tariff deal, included China in its 90-day truce, and is pursuing negotiations with various countries, turning risk sentiments “a shade brighter”, she said.
Koh said the de-escalation in US-China tensions and the concessions it led to was “a positive surprise both in terms of the magnitude and speed”.
Economists agreed that exporters could capitalise on this relief window to front-load exports, looking to stay ahead of potential changes while awaiting more clarity.
Bracing for more blows
This is particularly given that “the risk may now be asymmetrically skewed towards higher tariffs post the 90-day expiry on reciprocal tariffs, especially for the rest of Asia”, said Koh.
“Risk appetite will rebound, though medium-term risks remain and should not be overlooked,” added RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan and associate research analyst Laalitha Raveenthar.
Speaking to the media to give an update on the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong agreed that exports may grow as companies export “as much as they can now” during this reprieve on the tariffs – but this is “really no consolation”, as advanced sales mean that exports will slow down in time to come, when markets have stocked up.
There is still significant uncertainty on the future of Trump’s tariffs, the economists said.
Said Ling: “It remains to be seen if a more permanent trade deal can be reached between the US and China during the 90-day period.”
Despite the ongoing talks, RHB’s team remains cautious on Singapore’s export-oriented sectors, which have notable trade exposure to China. This exposure means that a slowdown in Chinese demand for these products would hit Singapore’s export revenue significantly.
China’s other trading partners, including Asean, could also feel the effects of the weaker production and consumption in China, which would hit Singapore exports to other regions, given the city-state’s role as a key hub in production and trading supply chains, they said.
Chua highlighted that while the de-escalation of US-China tensions is positive, global trade frictions remain higher than during pre-Trump 2.0.
This is expected to still dampen Singapore’s exports performance in 2025, even if less severely than previously anticipated, he said.
The economists also noted that the threat of further tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical products remains.
Gan, who leads Singapore’s tariff talks with the US, said that the US is open to discussion on “some form of concession” in the impending sectoral tariffs, such as those imposed on pharmaceuticals.
Overall, total trade rose 14.7 per cent from the corresponding year-ago period in April, accelerating from the 3.4 per cent growth in the preceding month. Total exports expanded 22.1 per cent, while total imports grew 7 per cent.
