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[BANGKOK] The highly-valued trade surpluses with the US, though indicative of robust export performance, can be a double-edged sword, as Thailand’s exports – projected to reach a historic high of nearly US$300 billion in 2024 – are partly driven by fears of US president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff-heavy policies aimed at trade surplus countries.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, research director at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), said of the exceptionally high growth in Thai exports: “Since July (2024), there were a lot of orders – more than usual – as (importers in the West) were afraid Trump would come in and hike the tariffs. So they started to stockpile.”

It is anticipated that Trump’s administration will aim to reduce US trade deficits by closely examining countries with which the US has significant trade imbalances.

Thailand’s exceptional export performance in 2024 was largely also fuelled by rising global demand, strategic expansion into rapidly growing markets, and robust growth in key industries such as electronics, agriculture and cars.

In the first 11 months of 2024, Thai exports reached US$275.7 billion, a 5.1 per cent increase from the previous year; imports rose by 5.7 per cent to US$282 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of US$6.22 billion.