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THAILAND’S Phuket has a lot to offer tourists from around the world. It boasts white sandy beaches, turquoise waters, a lively party scene and much more besides. Soon, it might add another offering – casinos.

On Jan 13, the Thai cabinet approved the Entertainment Complex Bill, paving the way for gambling to be legalised as soon as the middle of the year. While specific locations have yet to be finalised, likely to be targets for investment are Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Pattaya, according to a January report in the Bangkok Post.

The government first proposed legalising gambling two decades ago, but failed in the face of stiff opposition. Now, it’s revived its efforts as the country’s economy and its crucial tourism sector recover more slowly than anticipated after the Covid-19 pandemic.

A Citigroup report published in Nov 2024 projects that once fully developed, Thailand’s gambling revenue could reach US$9.1 billion, making it the third-largest market globally after Macau and Las Vegas. The projections assume that five casino licenses will be issued.

Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at Thailand-based financial services provider CGS International, said that while some fear that Thailand casinos could harm neighbouring markets, greater competition may actually drive the region’s gambling industry to new heights.

Friendly regulations

The draft bill allows gambling at casinos within fully integrated resorts, which must include at least four non-casino attractions, such as hotels, convention halls, shopping malls or theme parks.

Casino licenses will be issued to companies with a minimum capital of 10 billion baht ($398.2 million), with an initial 30-year term. Developers will pay a 5 billion baht registration fee and an annual fee of 1 billion baht.

A revised draft of the bill, published on Feb 15, proposes that casinos can make up no more than 10 per cent of the premises of the integrated resort. Casinos should also be separated from the rest of the complex, with separate gates and entrances.

The rules may make the country an attractive destination for investors.

Thailand’s capital requirement is around half the requirement for casinos in Macau – Asia’s top gambling destination. Thailand’s 30-year license term, significantly longer than Macau’s 10-year limit, is also appealing.

On the tax front, Thailand proposes a 17 per cent tax on gross gaming revenue (GGR), the second highest in Southeast Asia, just behind Cambodia. In contrast, Macau’s special gambling tax is set at 35 per cent of GGR.

According to the forecast by Maybank, Thailand could see its first integrated resorts by as soon as 2029.

Prommin Lertsuride, Paetongtarn’s secretary-general, said that six major gambling groups have already expressed interest in operating casinos in Thailand.

While he didn’t name any names, it’s been reported in Thai media that the six are Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, MGM China, Hard Rock Cafe, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment.

Melco Resorts chairman and CEO Lawrence Ho has revealed that the company has opened an office in Bangkok in anticipation of applying for a casino license.

Sluggish sector

Thailand’s economic recovery after the pandemic has fallen short of expectations, growing slower than South-east Asia a whole.

As tourism accounts for such a large part of the economy – worth 20 per cent of GDP – boosting the sector is crucial to accelerating the recovery.

According to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Thailand is expected to welcome 35 million foreign visitors in 2024, including 6.7 million from China, compared to 40 million visitors in total in 2019, of which 11 million came from China.

High-profile incidents – including the kidnapping of a Chinese actor in the country and a 2023 shooting at a Bangkok mall that killed a Chinese tourist – have shaken Chinese visitors’ confidence.

Addressing tourism setbacks was a priority for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra during her four-day visit to China earlier this month, according to the Bangkok Post.

The Thai government estimates that legalised gambling could attract 5 per cent to 10 per centmore foreign tourists, with tourism revenue rising by 120 billion baht to 220 billion baht.

A report submitted to parliament in March 2024 by a special committee suggested that introducing casinos as part of large entertainment complexes could increase GDP growth by 1.16 percentage points.

Players in South-east Asia

Thailand’s Buddhist majority has long viewed gambling as morally problematic, Thai conservatives have long opposed legalised gambling.

Besides moral objections, especially from the country’s many Buddhists, resistance has been fueled by concerns over addiction, family breakdowns and a potential rise in crime rates.

In early-2024, about 100 Thai experts from fields including economics, public health and the legal profession signed a joint statement opposing legalisation and disputing the government’s claim that gambling could stimulate economic growth.

On the other hand, gambling is already widespread in Thailand. A 2021 survey by Chulalongkorn University’s Centre for Gambling Studies found that about 59.6 per cent of people aged 15 and above in some form of gambling.

Of these, 45.4 per cent purchase government lottery tickets, 35.5 per cent participate in underground lottery betting and others gamble in casinos in neighboring Myanmar or Cambodia.

To address these concerns, the bill sets the minimum gambling age at 20 and mandates a minimum 5,000 baht casino entrance fee for Thai citizens – foreigners can enter for free. That’s about a week’s wages for the average Bangkok worker, according to Bank of Thailand data.

Regional competition

Seven South-east Asian nations – Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos – have already legalised gambling to varying degrees.

Singapore, currently the second-largest gambling destination in Asia after Macau, opened two integrated resorts with casinos in 2010 – Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands. Today, they contribute about 1 per cent to 2 per cent of the country’s GDP annually.

Singapore’s approach to gambling is underpinned by a strong regulatory framework. The government enforces a casino levy for all citizens and permanent residents. The levy – S$150 for a 24-hour period or S$3,000 annually – raised about S$149 million in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Philippines, known for its relaxed approach to gambling, has built a significant industry around state-owned casinos. The country’s gambling regulator operates 43 casinos nationwide. In 2024, the country’s gambling revenue reached 336.4 billion pesos (S$8.17 billion). The country’s gambling industry rebounded strongly after the pandemic.

Cambodia, with a relatively short history of legal casino gambling, has experienced rapid growth. The Cambodian Gambling Management Committee reports that the country currently has 195 licensed casinos, primarily in provinces near the borders with Thailand and Vietnam. In 2024, Cambodia’s tax revenue from gambling rose to US$63.1 million, an 85 per cent increase from the previous year.

Singapore may already be acting to see off Thai competition. A recent report from Thai media outlet Thansettakij cited anonymous sources suggesting that Singapore is concerned about Thailand’s plan to establish entertainment complexes. The report claimed Singapore had secretly lobbied US casino giant Las Vegas Sands to avoid investing in Thailand’s market.

Macau’s gambling industry is expected to be less impacted by Thailand’s plans.

Jeffrey Kiang, an analyst at investment group CSLA, noted that inbound tourists to Macau typically stay for about two nights, mostly to gamble. In contrast, tourists visiting Thailand are mainly drawn by leisure, with gambling likely to remain a secondary activity. “These two regions are playing different games,” Kiang said. CAIXIN GLOBAL