Donald Trump’s return to the White House armed with tariffs may further slow China’s economy
Growth in Hong Kong and Singapore for next year may come under pressure as Donald Trump returns to the White House armed with tariffs that may further slow China’s economy, according to the latest estimates from a Bloomberg survey.
Economists cut their quarterly outlooks for Hong Kong through the first half of 2025 by at least 0.5 percentage points, the survey showed. The yearly estimate is now reduced to 2.2 per cent from 2.6 per cent, according to the latest median forecast of 29 economists carried out over the past week.
“Hong Kong’s economic pressure will become increasingly apparent under Trump 2.0 and limited stimulus in China,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. “While the lower interest rates may help, the uncertain path may still affect the recovery in consumption and investment.”
Hong Kong’s government revised this year’s GDP forecast to 2.5 per cent from a range of 2.5 per cent-3.5 per cent. Cindy Keung, an economist at OCBC Bank, expects 2024 growth at 2.4 per cent with the economy expected to slow to 2.2 per cent next year.
Singapore’s economy is likely to expand 3.5 per cent in each of the first two quarters of next year, according to the latest survey. However, economists cut their outlook by more than one percentage point to 1.5 per cent in the third quarter and expect the economy to grow at 2.5 per cent in the last quarter in 2025.
Annual outlook for next year is upgraded to 2.6 per cent from 2.5 per cent previously, according to 33 economists.
“The proposed increase in US tariffs could moderate Singapore’s exports growth as global trade would likely slow down,” said Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “China’s slowdown poses risks to tourism, merchandise exports and inward investments, key drivers for Singapore’s growth as domestic-oriented sectors stabilize.”
Economists kept their headline and core inflation outlook for next year unchanged at 2 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively, both within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s latest forecasts of a 1.5 per cent-2.5 per cent range. BLOOMBERG
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