[SINGAPORE] The Republic’s 15th General Election (GE) is now months or even just weeks away, with the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee’s report imminent.
Here are five things to watch out for in GE2025.
1. Putting 4G popularity to the test
The upcoming GE will be Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s first electoral outing since taking over Singapore’s top political post in May 2024. Its outcome may be viewed by some as a report card not just on him, but the ruling People’s Action Party’s (PAP) 4th generation (4G) leadership team and their Forward Singapore agenda.
PM Wong gained recognition for his leadership in co-chairing Singapore’s Covid-19 task force. In May 2021, he was appointed Minister for Finance, two weeks after Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat took himself out of the running to succeed former prime minister Lee Hsien Loong.
While Singapore suffered its worst recession in 2020 due to the pandemic, the economy has rebounded strongly in the years that followed. For the 2024 financial year, the Republic expects a fiscal surplus of S$6.4 billion, eight times higher than initial estimates.
2. Impact of record number of vacated seats in a term
Six out of 87 elected seats in Parliament now lie empty – an unprecedented situation since Singapore’s independence.
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The exits began with then Workers’ Party (WP) MP for Sengkang Group Representation Constituency (GRC) Raeesah Khan’s resignation in November 2021, after admitting to lying in Parliament about a sexual assault case.
In 2023, former senior minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam resigned from the PAP after announcing his bid for the presidential election. He stepped down as MP for Jurong GRC, a position he had held since entering politics in 2001.
A week later, two PAP MPs resigned over an extramarital affair: then Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin, an MP for Marine Parade GRC, and then Tampines MP Cheng Li Hui. Shortly after, then WP MP for Aljunied GRC Leon Perera resigned after admitting to an affair with senior WP member Nicole Seah.
Last January, former transport minister and West Coast GRC MP S Iswaran resigned after being charged for corruption. He pleaded guilty to a reduced set of charges in September and was sentenced to a year in jail.
No by-elections have been called for any of the affected constituencies, as the Constitution does not require these when seats in GRCs are vacated.
Tan has been a consultant with philanthropic group Tan Chin Tuan Foundation since July. In January, Perera said he had moved to New York City for work, putting to rest speculation that he may contest GE2025 under the Progress Singapore Party’s banner.
It remains to be seen if these mid-term departures will have an impact on voters’ views of the incumbent parties in the respective constituencies. Voters will also be watching the PAP GRCs for a reshuffling of anchor ministers, if any.
3. New conquest or turf defence for WP?
In the largest upset of GE2020, WP won the newly created Sengkang GRC, claiming its second GRC. The question is whether the leading opposition party will ride on this momentum to claim a third – even as it has faced setbacks that could threaten its hold on Sengkang GRC.
The Raeesah incident has implicated WP chief and Leader of the Opposition Pritam Singh, who was on Feb 17 found guilty of lying under oath to the Committee of Privileges about how he dealt with her lie. Singh intends to appeal.
The loss of Raeesah, Perera and Seah has also thinned the WP’s ranks, raising questions about its capacity for new conquests, compared with the arguably safer option of shoring up its territory.
Yet, in GE2011, WP veteran Low Thia Khiang ventured out of the party’s stronghold of Hougang, after helming it for 20 years. The calculated risk paid off when he led WP to claim Aljunied GRC.
Fourteen years on, might WP take a similar plunge by moving another veteran out of Aljunied GRC?
4. Multi-cornered fights and new electoral boundaries
GE2025 could feature new GRCs and Single Member Constituencies (SMCs) due to population shifts and new estates emerging since the boundaries were last redrawn.
In the last electoral boundaries review ahead of GE2020, Sengkang GRC was created by combining Punggol East SMC with parts of Sengkang West SMC and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC.
Since then, several large new estates have emerged. These include Tengah, where close to 8,000 households have collected the keys to their Build-To-Order flats, and Bidadari, where most of the 10,000 or so residential units have been handed over.
Meanwhile, Singapore’s political landscape is getting more crowded, with at least 10 opposition parties having signalled their intent to contest GE2025.
This could mean the rise of multi-cornered fights – historically rare in GRCs – as parties seek to cement their presence. For instance, three opposition parties have already indicated their intention to challenge the PAP in Tampines GRC.
5. Return of physical rallies
Rallies have long been a core part of the GE experience, allowing voters to not just hear candidates first-hand, but experience the election buzz. In 2020, however, physical rallies were not allowed due to Covid curbs.
Instead, rallies went virtual and candidates campaigned online. An unexpected outcome was that voters could view multiple rallies simultaneously through livestreams, which would not have been possible previously.
This year, physical rallies will make a return alongside physical campaigning, similar to pre-Covid GEs. But political parties are likely to continue their online outreach efforts, especially in a bid to win over younger voters.
Replying to Singh’s parliamentary question in February, Minister of State for Home Affairs Sun Xueling said that the police aim to designate two rally sites for each GRC and one for each SMC. One rally site will also be available for lunchtime rallies.
The list of rally sites will be revealed on Nomination Day.
