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DESPITE strong sales at recent private residential property launches, the government will maintain land supply for private homes on the confirmed list for the first half of 2025.

The Ministry of National Development (MND) on Friday (Dec 6) said that it will release land for 5,030 private housing units in the next half year, similar to the 5,050 units’ land supply for the H2 2024 confirmed list.

Plum offerings

Market watchers expect strong interest from developers for the latest confirmed list, which includes seven new sites, most of which are well-located and near MRT stations.

Among them are two private housing sites in Dunearn Road and Telok Blangah Road that will kick-start the development of new housing precincts at Bukit Timah Turf City and the former Keppel Golf Course site, respectively.

Other fresh plum offerings to be launched in H1 2025 include a private housing site right next to Lakeside MRT station, and a stone’s throw from Jurong Lake.

Another choice land parcel is in Hougang Central, partially above Hougang MRT station. The 4.68-hectare commercial and residential site can generate about 835 private homes and up to 40,000 square metres (sq m) of gross floor area (GFA) of retail space; the development on the site will include integrated bus interchange facilities.

The 5,030-unit private housing supply on the H1 2025 confirmed list also includes 980 executive condominium (EC) units on three sites: a new plot in Sembawang Road, and two existing sites in Woodlands Drive 17 and Senja Close in the Bukit Panjang area.

This compares with just one EC plot on the confirmed list of half-year government land sales (GLS) programmes in recent years. The sole EC plot for the H2 2024 confirmed list can generate some 560 units.

ECs are a public-private housing hybrid, with initial buyer eligibility and resale restrictions that are completely lifted 10 years after an EC project has been completed.

Confirmed list sites are launched for sale according to schedule, regardless of demand.

On the reserve list – where sites are launched for sale only upon successful application by a developer, or when there is sufficient market interest – MND will offer land that can potentially generate about 3,475 private homes (none of which will be EC units) in H1 2025.

This is an increase compared with the H2 2024 reserve list, which offers land that can potentially generate about 3,090 private homes (including some 730 EC units).

Overall, the 10 confirmed-list sites and nine reserve-list sites for the H1 2025 programme are expected to yield around 8,505 private residential units (including EC units), 242,900 sq m GFA of commercial space, and 530 hotel rooms, said MND.

These are more than the 8,140 private homes (including EC units) and 113,650 sq m of commercial space – but the same as the 530 hotel rooms – that can be generated on the confirmed and reserve lists for H2 2024.

2024: An unprecedented year

Ismail Gafoor, chief executive officer of PropNex, noted that 2024 has been an unprecedented year for GLS tenders. “For the first time, the URA (Urban Redevelopment Authority) had decided not to award the tender for three plots.”

These are a site in Marina Gardens Crescent, a master-developer site in Jurong Lake District (both are white sites for mixed-use development), and a residential plot in Media Circle intended only for long-stay serviced apartments. The top bids for these three plots were assessed to be too low.

Meanwhile, a private housing site in Upper Thomson Road (Parcel A), which includes a long-stay serviced apartment component, drew no bids.

This site has resurfaced in the H1 2025 confirmed list. This time, serviced apartment or long-stay serviced apartment use will not be mandated, but can be allowed subject to approval from technical agencies.

Long-stay serviced apartments, with a minimum stay duration of three months, are the new rental concept unveiled by the government in November 2023. They differ from regular serviced apartments, which have a seven-day minimum stay.

Sticking to its guns

However, the URA is sticking to purely long-stay serviced apartment use for the Media Circle plot, which will be available on the H1 2025 reserve list. It joins the Jurong Lake District master-developer site and Marina Gardens Crescent plot, which were earlier moved to the reserve list.

Analysts are more upbeat on prospects for the H1 2025 confirmed-list sites, given that most of them are attractively located.

“Some developers are likely to be willing to pay top dollar for some of the choicest sites,” said Mogul.sg chief research officer Nicholas Mak. “The prices to be paid for these new sites are likely to be higher than the prices of previously transacted comparable land parcels.

“As a result, the latest GLS Programme would not cool private home prices. It could have the opposite effect and accelerate price growth.”

Wong Xian Yang, Cushman & Wakefield’s head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, offered a different view. “While developers may step up their land-acquisition efforts, they are expected to exercise caution and selectivity.”

He added: “Despite resilient underlying local demand for private residential properties, developers remain concerned about elevated development risks due to the spectre of new cooling measures, heightened construction costs and affordability constraints among buyers.”

In a similar vein, Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons, said: “The lower interest-rate environment might allow developers more room to tweak their bids for land. However, the robust sales take-up of recent project launches also raises the probability of the government stepping in to stabilise the market.”

As a result, developers are likely to be cautious to manage any potential downside risks, he added.

EC strategy may “backfire”

Mak of Mogul.sg also noted that having three EC plots on the confirmed list may have unintended repercussions.

“The government is clearly trying to meet the demand for EC units and to cool EC land prices by offering the three plots on the confirmed list,” he said.

“However, without adjusting the EC resale and ownership restrictions to bring them in line with those of Prime and Plus flats under the new HDB flat classification – such as (the) 10-year minimum occupation period and the subsidy recovery upon resale – the government’s efforts may backfire.”

The tenders for the three EC plots would contribute to an escalation of land prices as developers bid aggressively to acquire them, Mak added. “As EC prices form the floor price for private housing, the rising prices of EC units will eventually contribute to higher private property prices.”

MND said that the confirmed list for H1 2025 will contribute to a total pipeline supply of about 57,200 private housing (including EC) units, which can meet the housing needs of the population over the next few years.

“The supply will consist of a good spread of sites across geographical locations for the development of conventional private residential units and long-stay serviced apartments, to cater to owner-occupation and rental housing demand,” it added.