NEW DELHI: Global trade in 2025 is projected to undergo transformative shifts impacted by a variety of factors such as geopolitical tensions, a possible US-led trade war under Donald Trump, China’s industrial overcapacity, rising sustainability demands, and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI).
Experts emphasised that Indian exporters and importers must collaborate closely with the government to navigate these challenges effectively.
They further highlighted the urgent need for India to prioritise its AI strategy, as the technology is poised to revolutionise trade logistics, supply chain management, and traditional trade patterns.
Deep Kapuria, trade expert and Chairman of Hi-Tech Gears said, “AI is fast emerging as an important vehicle for future trade’s journey. ”
He added that digital transformation driven by artificial intelligence is set to boost not only services trade, “it may also create whole new categories of tradable AI-powered goods — from autonomous vehicles to robotics and beyond.”
While geopolitical tensions remain outside the private sector’s control, Kapuria stressed the importance of businesses, particularly in developing countries, meeting environmental and social sustainability standards.
“Complying with sustainability indicators is also important for companies to get integrated into GVCs (global value chains) as new laws such as EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive make it legally mandatory to ensure supply chain becomes sustainable,” Kapuria said.
SK Saraf, founder chairman of Technocraft Industries, urged Indian industries to invest in new age technologies to enhance competitiveness. He highlighted the opportunities for Indian exporters in the US market, particularly if the country imposes higher tariffs on Chinese goods under Trump’s administration.
“The exporters will have to look for ways to increase exports to the US as imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods by America would open up huge potential for them,” Saraf said.
Kapuria cautioned that retaliatory measures from Washington could disrupt global supply chains, trade, and foreign direct investment (FDI). He also pointed to the recent series of global shocks including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and tensions in the Middle East which have prompted nations to re explore their trade relationships and seek partnerships aligned with their economic and security priorities.
Kapuria further added that with geopolitical shifts and an increased focus on sustainability, countries must align their trade policies with global environmental goals to stay competitive.
Large economies such as the EU are leveraging trade agreements to push sustainability agendas in partner countries.
Meanwhile, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) president Ashwani Kumar called for establishing certified agencies to measure carbon emissions in domestic manufacturing practices.
“We’ve engaged foreign agencies to assist us in this area, as EU measures could pose significant challenges for Indian exporters,” Kumar said.
