The state witnessed an intense campaign, with both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress making extensive efforts to woo voters.The campaign revolved around several issues but one of the most debated among them was the CAA.
Amid the ongoing preparations for the Lok sabha polls, several organizations staged protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) across various districts of Assam, such as Guwahati, Barpeta, Lakhimpur, Nalbari, Dibrugarh, and Tezpur.
How CAA emerges as a dominant political discourse in parties
The BJP leader and chief minister of Assam Himanta Biswa sarma had earlier said that, “CAA is part of our commitment, it is part of our ideology. We will implement it. Somebody questioned ‘where is Ram Mandir, when it will come’, you have seen Ram Mandir now, somebody has questioned ‘when Article 370 will go’, it has gone. The same way you will see UCC (Uniform Civil Code) coming, the same way you will see CAA coming.”
Sarma said that he will be the first to step down if even one person, who has not applied for the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in the state, gets citizenship under the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA).
The Assam chief minister said the Act is very clear that the cut-off date for application of citizenship is December 31, 2014, and in Assam, with the updation of the National Register of Citizens, people who applied for it and did not find their names in that list, will only apply for CAA.
Strongly opposing the CAA West Bengal CM Mamata Bannerjee said, “We are ready to shed blood for the country but will not tolerate torture for the country. A uniform civil code is not acceptable. I want harmony among all religions. Your safety. Your life. No NRC, no CAA.”
Critics argue that the law, along with a proposed national register of citizens, could potentially lead to discrimination against India’s 200 million Muslims, making it the world’s third-largest Muslim population. They fear that the proposed National Register of Citizens could exacerbate existing discrimination and marginalization.
However even the union home ministry has clarified these allegations on CAA and said that the Act “does not prevent any Muslim, who is persecuted in those Islamic countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan) for practising their version of Islam, from applying for Indian citizenship under the existing laws”.
“CAA does not cancel the naturalisation laws. Therefore, any person including the Muslim migrants from any foreign country, seeking to be an Indian citizen, can apply for the same under the existing laws,” the ministry said.
Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) candidate Lurinjyoti Gogoi from Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat said, “The CAA is completely motivated, communal and unconstitutional, and a ploy of the BJP to burden Assam and its resources further. Our constitution has the principle of secularism enshrined in it, but the act is based on religious division.”
Congress candidate Gaurav Gogoi from Jorhat Lok Sabha seat said, “In the first cabinet meeting of the INDIA alliance govt, CAA will be scrapped. This will be the most important issue.” Gaurav said during the campaign in Jorhat, which was once represented by his father and three-time CM Tarun Gogoi.
Why is CAA such a big issue in state politics of Assam
As per details from Census 2011, Assam has a population of 3.12 Crores, an increase from the figure of 2.67 Crore in 2001 census. Total population of Assam as per latest census data is 31,205,576 of which male and female are 15,939,443 and 15,266,133 respectively.
Here’s a table summarising the population data for Assam from the Census 2001 and Census 2011:
In 2001, total population was 26,655,528 in which males were 13,777,037 while females were 12,878,491. The total population growth in this decade was 17.07 percent while in the previous decade it was 18.85 percent. The population of Assam forms 2.58 percent of India in 2011. In 2001, the figure was 2.59 percent.
CAA protests in Assam
Protests in Assam first emerged in 2018 when the amendment was still a bill awaiting passage into law. In 2019, Assam was among the pioneering states where protests against the CAA commenced, which later transformed into a nationwide movement.
Student and indigenous groups, along with political parties, oppose the CAA, citing violations of the 1985 Assam Accord, which calls for the deportation of those entering from Bangladesh after March 24, 1971.
With the issuance of the CAA rules, the central government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will grant Indian citizenship to persecuted non-Muslim migrants from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan who entered India before December 31, 2014, following the implementation of the CAA rules. The CAA, which was passed in December 2019 but had not been enforced until now, includes Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis, and Christians.
The 2019 protests in Assam were unprecedented in their scale, matching the intensity of the demonstrations during the Assam Movement from 1979 to 1985. However, the current protests in 2024 have significantly diminished in scale when compared to the previous demonstrations.
Previous Lok Sabha elections result
In the 2016 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party made history by ending the Congress’s 15-year rule and securing a decisive mandate that brought them to power in the state for the first time.
BJP and its allies, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), collectively won 86 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly. The BJP alone secured 60 seats, while the AGP and BPF won 14 and 12 seats, respectively.
And later again in the Assam assembly elections in 2021, the BJP maintained its dominance by winning 60 seats, significantly outperforming the Congress, which managed to secure only 29 seats. Other parties, such as the AIUDF and AGP, put up a good performance, winning 16 and 9 seats, respectively.
The Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal, two parties that emerged from the anti-CAA protests, managed to secure one seat each in the assembly.
Can it affect the results in Assam and Bengal?
The opposition is still using CAA as a big agenda to fight against BJP. Assam politicians took to the streets protesting against implementation. Both Assam and Bengal politicians are using it as a rallying point against the BJP in the Elections.
In its manifesto for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, titled ‘Didir Shopoth (Didi’s pledges)’, the Trinamool Congress has vowed to repeal the recently notified Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, and halt the National Register of Citizens (NRC) process. As a symbolic gesture of their opposition, they have also announced plans to burn copies of the Act in all district headquarters across the state.
CM Sarma has said CAA won’t affect indigenous Assam population, no CAA application in 4 years and NDA will win all Lok Sabha seats.
As himanta is confident that CAA won’t affect Lok Sabha election, opposition vows to make it a major issue and is betting on it to yield a different outcome compared to the 2021 assembly elections.
It will be great to see if BJP can cross the 400-seat mark in a house of 543 parliamentary seats declared by PM Modi “Abki baar 400 paar,” breaking the opposition Congress Party record in 1984
