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[SINGAPORE] Amid tight supply and steady demand for larger units, the proportion of Housing & Development Board (HDB) resale flats fetching at least S$1 million has climbed to nearly 6 per cent of the year-to-date sales as at mid-June. Analysts now expect the number of such deals to hit a record this year.

Such transactions have surged over the past five years, showed HDB and Huttons Asia data. In 2020, they made up just 0.3 per cent of total deals, but their share grew steadily to 3.6 per cent in 2024.

From January to mid-June, 677 flats were sold for at least S$1 million each – more than 60 per cent of 2024’s total of 1,035 such transactions, said Mark Yip, chief executive of Huttons Asia.

There was a new high for the year in May, with 143 flats changing hands for at least S$1 million, accounting for 6.3 per cent of the month’s resale transactions.

The number of HDB resale listings priced above S$1 million has also been climbing, said Dr Lee Nai Jia, head of real estate intelligence at PropertyGuru. In 2024, the share of listings priced above the million-dollar mark rose from 2 per cent to 2.2 per cent. In the year-to-date period as at mid-June, the figure stood at about 2.4 per cent.

Some market watchers expect million-dollar or more HDB resale flat transactions to hit a record this year, with estimates ranging between 1,300 and 1,500 deals – or about 5 per cent of total sales. Huttons Asia projects total resale volume to be between 26,000 and 28,000 flats for the year.

The surge in million-dollar deals is driven by a mismatch between tight supply and steady demand, analysts said.

The supply of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) has been falling since 2022. It is estimated that just 8,000 resale flats will enter the market in 2025 – the lowest in 10 years – before supply recovers to 13,500 units in 2026.

“This supply constraint on newer (resale) flats has led to more competition, driving up the prices of these flats,” said ERA Singapore’s key executive officer Eugene Lim. These units are usually under 10 to 15 years old and located near transport nodes and amenities, he added.

Lim noted that while Singaporeans are earning more, some HDB upgraders might find a condominium “too expensive” and opt to purchase newer and centrally located HDB resale homes.

“This phenomenon of ‘upgrading within the HDB market’ has driven up prices, and, in tandem with dwindling MOP supply, has led to an increase in the prevalence of such flats being sold on the market,” he said.

Such deals remain concentrated in mature and central locations. Between 2020 and June 2025, the proportion of million-dollar flats was highest in the central area (24.1 per cent), followed by Bukit Timah (21.4 per cent), Bishan (10.9 per cent), Toa Payoh (9.3 per cent) and Queenstown (8.2 per cent), Huttons Asia data showed.

Bukit Timah and the central area have seen limited new supply in recent years, while towns such as Bukit Merah, Kallang/Whampoa and Queenstown recently had several Build-To-Order (BTO) projects hitting MOP, and achieving record prices, said Yip.

For example, a 1,572 square foot (sq ft) executive flat in Queenstown fetched S$1.51 million, or S$961 per sq ft – the third-highest transaction in May.

Between 2025 and 2027, more than 3,200 flats in Queenstown and over 4,500 in Toa Payoh are expected to reach MOP, which could sustain the trend of million-dollar flat transactions in these areas, said Justin Quek, OrangeTee & Tie’s CEO.

PropertyGuru’s Dr Lee also noted that recent transactions showed that million-dollar flats are typically newer units in prime locations or larger, older flats such as executive apartments and maisonettes.

“Many of these were built in the 1990s and early 2000s. With children having moved out and the upkeep of large homes becoming more demanding, some owners may be looking to rightsize,” he added.

Rising demand just below the million-dollar mark

Beyond the million-dollar transactions, more resale flats are also changing hands at prices just below that threshold.

Year to date as at Jun 11, flats sold between S$800,000 and just under S$900,000 accounted for 8.7 per cent of the total sales, making up “a bigger chunk of transactions” as compared with million-dollar flats, said Huttons Asia’s Yip.

“A rising tide lifts all boats, hence the number of transactions in the various price brackets have risen over these few years. For buyers who were priced out, some bought flats in the next lower price bracket,” he added.

Driving this demand is the growing income levels and government housing grants, said OrangeTee & Tie’s Quek.

“With the prices of some Prime model flats also crossing S$700,000, eligible first-timers who have access to HDB grants in urgent need of homes may also have turned to a pricier resale flat instead and thus contributed to more flats transacting for at least S$800,000.”

Overall, resale flat prices have been climbing. The median price of resale flats in January to May 2025 stood at S$625,000 – up 47.1 per cent from S$425,000 in 2020, noted Quek.

Meanwhile, median prices of million-dollar flats grew 4.1 per cent to S$1.1 million in January to May 2025, up from S$1.06 million in 2020.

Addressing affordability amid soaring prices

Rising resale flat prices will have a direct impact on surrounding land prices and add to the costs of future BTO projects, said Professor Sing Tien Foo, the National University of Singapore Business School’s provost chair professor of real estate.

“While HDB decouples BTO prices from resale market prices, it would have to provide more upfront subsidies to keep BTO prices within the affordable range,” he added.

The new BTO classification system aims to provide higher subsidies for Prime projects, which come with stricter conditions such as longer MOPs and subsidies that are recoverable when sold, said Prof Sing.

“Therefore, it would be essential for the government to closely monitor resale market transactions and ensure that resale prices are aligned with fundamental values. Speculative activities should be restrained from the resale market, as they could have unintended consequences that adversely impact the affordability of public housing.”

Still, Huttons Asia’s Yip said the longer MOP of 10 years may create a supply vacuum for some years.

“There is a period of five to 10 years when there is no new supply of flats to the resale market in the Plus and Prime areas, as most of the Plus and Prime BTO projects will fulfil their MOP in 2038 and few Standard BTO projects in the vicinity will complete their MOP between 2028 and 2033,” he said.

Due to this vacuum, Yip expects asking prices of Plus and Prime flats in 2038 to surpass the current prices of up to S$1.4 million for a four-room resale flat.

“This can still represent a sizeable gain for sellers even after factoring in the subsidy clawback, from the estimated average price of S$600,000 to S$630,000 for a four-room Plus and Prime flat in Bukit Merah and Kallang/Whampoa.”

To draw demand away from the resale market, he suggested launching more flats in areas with a higher proportion of million-dollar deals. These could come with shorter waiting times and larger clawback subsidies.