[SINGAPORE] Singapore’s key exports rose at a much slower pace in March, missing the forecasts of analysts who had expected double-digit growth.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 5.4 per cent year on year (yoy) in March, easing from the 7.6 per cent increase the month before, data from Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) showed on Thursday (Apr 17).
This was far lower than the 13.6 per cent jump that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg had been anticipating.
March’s showing brings NODX growth in the first quarter to 3.3 per cent.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, NODX shrank 7.6 per cent in March, compared with growth of 2.6 per cent in the previous month.
Both electronics and non-electronics shipments grew, with the increase in electronics exports offset by the easing growth in non-electronics ones.
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Economists are expecting Singapore’s export numbers to worsen in the months ahead, with March’s performance not fully capturing the downside risks associated with US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“The resilience exhibited in Q1 is unlikely to last,” said Sheana Yue, economist from Oxford Economics.
“Singapore’s export outlook has darkened due to increased US tariffs on almost all its major trading partners. Moreover, rising uncertainty will significantly impact business and consumer sentiment.”
EnterpriseSG noted that it is “actively monitoring the evolving tariff situation” and will adjust its full-year forecast as necessary to reflect changing market conditions. In February, it maintained its forecast range at 1 to 3 per cent.
UOB associate economist Jester Koh noted that Singapore’s NODX momentum plummeted at the height of the US-China trade war during Trump’s first term, and only started to “regain footing” when the tensions eased with the inking of the Phase One deal in January 2020.
However, Oxford Economics’ Yue expects “some very near-term strength” as companies in the US front-load orders in anticipation of potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are currently exempted, along with higher tariffs that have been delayed for 90 days.
Still, several economists said they are trimming their full-year NODX outlook. UOB is slashing its forecast to minus 4 per cent, from 1.5 per cent previously; RHB to zero per cent, from 2 per cent; and Maybank to 1 per cent, from 3 per cent.
RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan expects Singapore, as a key trading hub in Asean, to “suffer a relatively negative impact” compared to its neighbours.
In particular, he expects the worst-hit sectors to be machinery and transport, chemicals and related products, as well as miscellaneous manufacturing.
These are among Singapore’s top NODX products value-wise, he noted, and are exposed in terms of trade with China.
Exports ease
Electronics shipments rose 11.9 per cent yoy from a low base the year before, extending from the 6.9 per cent increase in February. Electronic NODX in March 2024, at S$2.8 billion, was the lowest monthly level recorded last year.
Exports of personal computers, disk media products and integrated circuits contributed the most to the expansion, EnterpriseSG said.
Exports of non-electronic products grew 3.8 per cent from the year-ago period in March, about half the pace of the 7.7 per cent growth recorded in the previous month.
The authorities attributed the rise mostly to structures of ships and boats, non-monetary gold and pharmaceuticals.
Shipments to Singapore’s top 10 markets, other than China, grew in March.
NODX to Taiwan grew 45.7 per cent on year in March, easing from the previous month’s 77.9 per cent jump.
Exports to Indonesia surged 63 per cent from a year earlier, in a reversal of February’s 5.4 per cent contraction.
Shipments to the US rose just 5.7 per cent from the year-ago period in March, slowing down from the previous month’s 21.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, exports to China shrank 29.4 per cent from the same period last year, worsening from the 27.4 per cent contraction in February.
Overall, total trade increased 3.4 per cent yoy in March, easing from the 4.6 per cent growth in the previous month.
